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GamblingTips · Joined: 07 Jul 2005 Posts: 33

As we have witnessed so many times in the past, a starting rookie quarterback in the NFL, is usually a recipe for disaster. In San Diego former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees had a breakout season last year, but not before performing so badly, that the Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers.

Now Brees former teammate Kyle Orton is going to get thrown into the lions den, as he makes his first start on the road against Greg Williams’s ferocious Redskins defense.

Supporters of Orton’s will point to the fact that he has been schooled for four years in the West Coast offense by Purdue head coach Joe Tiller who is a master at this scheme, but playing on Sundays in the NFL, is a giant leap from Saturdays in the Big Ten!

The Redskins are favored by 6 points and the over/under total sits at 33 presently. As noted above the Redskins have a very talented defense, but their offense is questionable at best. They are starting diminutive receivers in Santana Moss and David Patton and will still try and feature Clinton Portis, running the ball.

At quarterback they have Patrick Ramsey who beat out veteran Mark Brunell for the spot, but make no mistake this team’s fortunes rest on the play of the defense and the foot of placekicker John Hall.

Bears coach Lovie Smith acquired his head coaching job due to his fine work in St. Louis with the Rams and he has a pretty good idea what the Redskins will throw at Orton. Multiple blitz packages and probably eight men in the box, to force the rookie to throw, will be the look Washington will give. The Bears chances of escaping the nation’s capital with a victory rest with the talented defense.

Fortunately for the Bears, the defense is healthy — for now — and has given indications that it is ready to become one of the top units in the NFL. It allowed 13 points in nine preseason quarters even without starting cornerback Jerry Azumah (hip), who is supposed to be back for the season opener.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters — LE Adewale Ogunleye, DT Tommie Harris, NT Ian Scott, RE Alex Brown. Backups — DE Michael Haynes, NT Tank Johnson, DE Israel Idonije, DT Alfonso Boone.

The Bears need a healthy, double-digit-sack season from Ogunleye, who didn't come close to living up to his $33.65 million contract last season, when he couldn't play effectively through an ankle injury. He should more than double last season's total of five sacks, and that should make Brown more of a pass-rush threat after he led the team with six sacks in '04. Inside, Harris can be special. He started 16 games as a rookie, while unheralded Scott established himself as a force vs. the run, as he showed much improvement after an undistinguished rookie season. Johnson and Alfonso Boone provide decent depth, as does former first-round pick Haynes at end. Idonije has some pass-rush potential and also played inside at times last season.

LINEBACKERS: Starters — WLB Lance Briggs, MLB Brian Urlacher, SLB Hunter Hillenmeyer. Backups — Joe Odom, Jeremy Cain.
Urlacher might have put up the best numbers of his stellar career last season if he didn't suffer three separate injuries that limited him to nine games. The Bears were 0-7 when he didn't start. Briggs led the Bears with 168 tackles last season from the weak side and could be on the verge of stardom. He is as active as Urlacher and made as many tackles when they were both healthy, but he has yet to prove he can make the game-changing plays that separate Urlacher from the pack. Hillenmeyer played well enough last season as Urlacher's fill-in that he was given the strong-side job. The backups can run but aren't nearly as stout as the starters.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Starters — CB Charles Tillman, Jerry Azumah, SS Mike Brown, FS Mike Green. Backups — CB Nathan Vasher, S Todd Johnson, CB Todd McMillon, CB-S Jerrell Pippens.
Big, rangy Tillman is the team's best cover corner, but he can be prone to drawing flags. On the other side, Azumah missed the entire preseason schedule after undergoing arthroscopic hip surgery on Aug. 3, but he is expected to start the season opener. Vasher was a pleasant surprise as a rookie last season, leading the team with five interceptions. He's an outstanding ball athlete but is much better suited to playing in the slot because he lacks size and strength. Brown and Green have flip-flopped position this season, with Brown moving to strong to utilize his physical play in the box and Green moving to free because he's better in coverage. Depth here took a big hit when backup safeties Bobby Gray (knee) and Cameron Worrell (shoulder) suffered season-ending injuries in the third preseason game. But Johnson is a physical presence who has made strides. McMillon's main value is on special teams, and he could be passed by Pippens, who has the size to play safety but may have the skills for corner.

There is no way I will put my dollars on the Bears to cover the spread, as the rookie Orton may cough up the football one too many times. I will however grab the under at 33 as both teams will feature their running game and the defenses are outstanding.

Bears/Redskins under 33!
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