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Source: Boston.com:
As the Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants approaches, Patriot fans can bolster their confidence with one of the most accurate predictors for the past two decades: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data.
That encouragement comes from outplacement firm RiseSmart, which has correlated the data for last twenty Super Bowls.
The conclusion: the team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower unemployment rate during the previous calendar year has won 17 of the past 20 Super Bowls – a remarkable 85 percent success rate. Based on this correlation, the New England Patriots should claim the NFL championship over the New York Giants. Through November, the 2011 unemployment rate for the Boston metropolitan area was 6.8 percent, compared to 8.5 percent for the New York metropolitan area.
“Is economic prosperity a predictor of victory? The data would seem to suggest it,” said Sanjay Sathe, founder and CEO of RiseSmart, the provider of outplacement solutions that annually highlights the correlation between jobless rates and winning it all in the NFL.
The predictor has been correct in the past three championship games, including Super Bowl XLV, in which Green Bay (7.7 percent 2010 unemployment) defeated Pittsburgh (8.0 percent).
Unfortunately, the Giants’ upset victory over New England in Super Bowl XLII, when the Patriots entered the game undefeated, represents one of the three times in the past two decades when the unemployment rate predictor failed to predict the outcome of the game.
“Correlation does not imply causation, of course. And there are exceptions to every rule,” Sathe said. “But one should never underestimate the power of having a job.”
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